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What will you do when the oil runs out?

Yesterday in The Guardian, George Monbiot wrote about peak oil.

He said:

“A report published last week by Citibank, and so far unremarked on by the media, proposes “genuine difficulties” in increasing the production of crude oil, “particularly after 2012”. Though 175 big drilling project will start in the next four years, “the fear remains that most of this supply will be offset by high levels of decline”.

“Does this mean that oil production in these nations has already peaked? If so, what do our governments intend to do?

“Nine months ago, I asked the British government to send me its assessments of global oil supply. The results astonished me: there weren’t any. Instead it relied exclusively on one external source: a book published by the International Energy Agency. The omission became stranger still when I read this book and discovered that it was a crude polemic, dismissing those who questioned future oil supplies as “doomsayers” without providing robust evidence to support its conclusions.

“Last week I tried again, and I received the same response: “The government agrees with IEA analysis that global oil (and gas) reserves are sufficient to sustain economic growth for the foreseeable future.” Perhaps it hasn’t noticed that the IEA is now backtracking. The Financial Times says the agency “has admitted that it has been paying insufficient attention to supply bottlenecks as evidence mounts that oil is being discovered more slowly than once expected … natural decline rates for discovered fields are a closely guarded secret in the oil industry, and the IEA is concerned that the data it currently holds is not accurate.” What if the data turns out to be wrong? What if Opec’s stated reserves are a pack of lies? What contingency plans has the government made? Answer comes there none.

“The European commission, by contrast, does have a plan, and it’s a disaster. It recognises that “the oil dependence of the transport sector … is one of the most serious problems of insecurity in energy supply that the EU faces”. Partly in order to diversify fuel supplies, partly to cut greenhouse gas emissions, it has ordered the member states to ensure that by 2020 10% of the petroleum our cars burn must be replaced with biofuels. This won’t solve peak oil, but it might at least put it into perspective by causing an even bigger problem.

George goes on to argue against the use of biofuels for various very good reasons. He finishes:

“All these convoluted solutions are designed to avoid a simpler one: reducing the consumption of transport fuel. But that requires the use of a different commodity. Global supplies of political courage appear, unfortunately, to have peaked some time ago.”

prone have been on this case for some time. And we’re happy to report we’re seeing a solution.

We’ve been watching the rapidly-growing Transition Towns movement, supported by a host of green organisations including the Soil Association, and spreading through communities in the UK and internationally since its inception in the Devon town of Totnes just over a year ago.

It’s radical, it’s real, and it’s of the people.

Politicians, as so often, are behind the curve.

Out there in the communities, up and down the land, ordinary people are showing they have the nerve by the bucketful that George Monbiot publicly called for yesterday.

prone was publishing about this as long ago as November 2007, when in the Western Mail, Cymru’s national newspaper, we wrote:

The Transition movement recognises several key points.

First, every community now faces an imminent crisis in two areas – climate change and “peak oil”. There simply will not be cheap, freely-available oil for very much longer.

Second, communities can assess their resilience and prepare for the transition to a post peak-oil economy and climate change.

And third, to be effective, the organisation should work from the grass roots up.

None of this is about sustainable buildings alone. It’s about sustainable thinking, in groups and communities.

Ben Brangwyn, co-founder of the Transition Network, said, “Peak oil means we’re very dependent on this cheap resource, and we’re also very close to the point where the amount of oil being pumped into the economy is going to peak, plateau and then decline. We need to face up to that now.”

Many experts believe the crisis is already starting. Three weeks ago, the international Association for the Study of Peak Oil noted that the price of oil has risen eight times in less than 10 years. Industry leaders are predicting that production will peak in less than 20 years. Before that, the oil price could hit $150 per barrel – almost twice its current price.

But the Transition movement says all communities can do something to help themselves – a message that’s now being heard from parish pumps to the corridors of power.

Patrick Holden, director of organic food and certification organisation the Soil Association, said:

“I think things are going to get difficult very soon. The first requirement of any civilised society is to have a reliable and sustainable source of food. We need to stop depending on oil to get our food to us.

“We’ve lost our local food infrastructure and that’s dangerous. That’s why the Soil Association wants to support the food and farming element of the Transition Movement.”

Watch this space. It’s happening.

Green hotels for a greener world

The Fairmont Chateau in Whistler puts its money where its mouth is when it comes to being green.

The Canadian chain (53 hotels in 12 countries) leads the world on sustainable practice in the hospitality industry – while providing a top-quality luxury experience too.

Eco-gain without the pain. It teaches the guests. And it really impressed us.

This isn’t greenwash. Sustainability underpins everything the Fairmont chain does – from transport to recycling, community relations and electricity generation to the Natural Step, all held together by the company-wide Environmental Partnership Program.

prone spoke with Lynn Gervais, PR manager at the hotel. “One thing we aim at is being authentically local,” she said. “We’re Whistler. And that’s a great thing.“

Here at prone, we’re also very fond of the TYF eco-hotel in St David’s – the first organic hotel in Wales, located in Britain’s smallest city on some of its wildest, loveliest coast.

From 12-bedroom converted windmill to the largest luxury hotel chain in North America. Now all we need are the ones in between.

Walk your Talk

prone was invited deep into the heart of Wales to witness the leading edge in sustainable business practice for a post-peak-oil world.

We’ve looked on the face of the future, and seen the joy of a child and the wisdom of an adult.

Looks like we might need both.

Fifty investors and financiers, entrepreneurs and creative artists gathered on 4th to 7th November at Buckland Hall near Brecon, a place of unsurpassed natural beauty (anyone who hasn’t been to Wales yet should go there immediately).

From Harvard to Hebden Bridge they came. And having got there, from all parts of the UK and from abroad, at personal cost and in working time…they played.

They put their wellies on and rambled around the lanes and woods. They said they were butterflies or bumblebees. They built wood fires and set off fireworks. They freely followed their interests.

They posted discussion ideas on walls. prone led a session on talking your walk. Who’s going to get the message out, and how?

This is the technique of ‘Open Space’, designed to allow genuine, real connections and truthful discussions. Happiness, it turns out, can be a sophisticated way of achieving, in just three days, a step change in thinking about how business can become more sustainable to face the climate crisis ahead.

“Is our action congruent with our intention? That’s the founding principle of Walk your Talk,” organiser Mike Zeidler told me. “We’re making a change in the way we do business and the way we relate to each other. What does sustainability really mean to each of us?

“The point of Walk Your Talk is to leave us feeling re-energised, with more people to call on, with fresh ideas and challenges. Some will draw on that and start expanding their initiative or work. Others will leave with new understanding or convictions.”

It all started when Dame Anita Roddick founded the New Academy of Business to put sustainable business ideas into practice.

But now it’s a mighty movement, pushing for social change.

Groups are springing up to face the challenge. The Social Venture Network; the Association of Sustainability Practitioners; Pioneers for Change; Ethical Junction. Huge numbers, tens of thousands of us walking our talk every day.

“What you’re seeing is the visible edge of a phenomenal and powerful movement of people. It’s real and it’s out there,” Mike said.

It’s fantastic to be on the crest of this wave. To be using your business to build a more just and sustainable world – could there be anything better?

The future’s here.